Current community forecast
No 99%
Forecasters
40
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 59 minutes ago
LaggingJan 21, 25, 11:41 PM UTCJan 2, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
This resolves to YES if we are confident that DeepSeek's r1 or DeepSeek's v3 would have been held responsible for a catastrophic risk, anywhere in the world, as it would have been judged by the vetoed SB 1047.
- Future versions of r1 or v3 (including something like r1.5 or v3.1) DO count towards this, but anything labeled r2 or higher, or v4 or higher, does not.
- This resolves to NO if that does not happen.
- This resolves early to NO if DeepSeek or others have released new models such that it is essentially impossible for the event to take place, AND the market is trading reliably at <5%, and someone actually notifies me of this.
- If we are actively uncertain if this event happened, this resolves to my best estimate % chance it happened - which will be the market price if I think market is reasonable and not manipulated.
- I will likely not answer ANY clarification questions, period, after my recent experiences.
