Current community forecast
No 96.7%
Forecasters
18
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 45 minutes ago
LaggingAug 6, 25, 6:38 PM UTCJan 1, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
RSA-2048 encryption will be broken by 2032
Manifold MarketsWill AES-256 encryption be broken by 2070?
Manifold MarketsWill AES-256 encryption be broken by 2033?
Manifold MarketsWill RSA-2048 encryption be broken before Bitcoin reaches $150K USD?
Manifold MarketsWill a reliable and general household robot be developed before January 1st, 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
Cybersecurity analysts call this Q-Day—the day someone builds a Quantum Computer that can crack the most widely used forms of encryption.
- https://archive.is/00jZB
- It may have already happened and they kept it a secret.
- So this market will not close until 1/1/28.
- Although Q-day must happen a year before that 1/1/27 to resolve as Yes.
- I think by then everyone will know if the answer is Yes.
