Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 74.3%
Forecasters
13
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleFeb 13, 23, 7:48 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will NYT write an article about a scandal at 80,000 Hours, before end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhen will there be a news article about people taking an Optimus robot with them on camping trips?
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Manifold MarketsElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
PolymarketWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
KalshiWill Florida receive more visitors in 2026 than in 2025?
KalshiRules
Resolves YES if an article appears in the New York Times discussing a scandal or significant malfeasance at Centre for Effective Altruism before end of 2026.
- This is independent of whether I believe the content of the article to be valid.
- Else resolves NO.
- See also: https://manifold.markets/Amaryllis/will-vox-write-an-article-about-a-s-c10c60e6e5e0
Open markets
Society & CulturePOLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
- 40-64-2.0pt44.5%
- 65-89+1.0pt29.7%
- <40-7.0pt13.9%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $33.5K
- 24h Vol
- $29.4K
KALSHIWhat will the reporters say during ABC World News Tonight?
- Hurricane89%
- Canada / Canadian89%
- Renoir84%
+13 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $9K
- 24h Vol
- $9K
KALSHIWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
- No98%
- Yes-2.0pt2%
- Total Vol
- $7.9K
- 24h Vol
- $6.7K
KALSHIWill Florida receive more visitors in 2026 than in 2025?
- No82%
- Yes18%
- Total Vol
- $21.1K
- 24h Vol
- $1.2K
KALSHIWill Yellowstone record over 5 million recreation visits in 2026?
- No95%
- Yes-6.0pt5%
- Total Vol
- $17.9K
- 24h Vol
- $1.1K
POLYMARKETPoilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?
- No+1.5pt80.2%
- Yes-1.5pt19.8%
- Total Vol
- $158.3K
- 24h Vol
- $287.1
- US test scores in Math in 2026?
- Harry Kane Knighted in 2026
- Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?
- Is Earth flat?
- Will California start laying high-speed rail track in 2026?
- US test scores in Reading in 2026?
- Major news story in Sep 2026?
- Will UCLA out-of-state tuition exceed $55,000 in 2026?
- Which colleges will see their ranking drop this year?
- Idaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion?
- Who will be in the US News top 20 universities?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will NYT write an article about a scandal at CEA before end of 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 74% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will NYT write an article about a scandal at CEA before end of 2026? resolve?
- Will NYT write an article about a scandal at CEA before end of 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Will NYT write an article about a scandal at CEA before end of 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES if an article appears in the New York Times discussing a scandal or significant malfeasance at Centre for Effective Altruism before end of 2026.