Current community forecast
No 96.9%
Forecasters
10
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 53 minutes ago
LaggingApr 21, 26, 4:07 PM UTCOct 21, 26, 4:06 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will New Glenn fly again in 2026?
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Manifold MarketsBlue Origin New Glenn launch in 2026?
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KalshiRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if a New Glenn rocket completes a successful liftoff from a launch pad within six months of the current date (October 21, 2026).
- The launch is considered to have occurred once the rocket lifts off under its own power.
- New Glenn is a heavy-lift, partially reusable launch vehicle developed by Blue Origin.
- As of April 2026, the vehicle has completed three orbital flight attempts.
- The most recent mission (NG-3) occurred on April 19, 2026, and successfully demonstrated the first reuse of a first-stage booster, although the upper stage failed to deliver its satellite payload to the intended orbit.
Open markets
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $76,750 or above99%
- $76,500 or above99%
- $76,250 or above99%
+77 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.5M
- 24h Vol
- $1.5M
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $72,000 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,500 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+10.0pt31.7%
- 200-219+8.0pt23.1%
- 160-179-4.0pt19.2%
+23 more outcomes
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 88° to 89°+7.0pt33.6%
- 90° or above+18.0pt32.7%
- 86° to 87°-13.0pt23.1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- Houston+69.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+6.0pt99%
- Los Angeles+71.0pt75%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $229.5K
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- 65-89+29.0pt50%
- 40-64+0.5pt46.1%
- 90-114-2.9pt3.9%
+7 more outcomes
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- Nasdaq-100 price on Sep 8, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- When will Apple release the iPhone 18?
- Highest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- Which company has the best AI model end of September?
- Best AI at the end of 2026?
- ETH price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- When will Apple Inc. release the iPhone 18 Pro?
- Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by which date?
- Highest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- Next James Bond actor?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will New Glenn fly again within 6 months? (2026-10-21)?
- Manifold Markets prices No at 97% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will New Glenn fly again within 6 months? (2026-10-21) resolve?
- Will New Glenn fly again within 6 months? (2026-10-21) is scheduled to resolve on October 21, 2026.
- How is Will New Glenn fly again within 6 months? (2026-10-21) settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria