This market resolved: No (98.9%)
Resolved: Oct 22, 2026, 6:13 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 21, 2026, 10:45 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Yes1.1%
No98.9%
Won
Lost
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if a New Glenn rocket completes a successful liftoff from a launch pad within six months of the current date (October 21, 2026).
- The launch is considered to have occurred once the rocket lifts off under its own power.
- New Glenn is a heavy-lift, partially reusable launch vehicle developed by Blue Origin.
- As of April 2026, the vehicle has completed three orbital flight attempts.
- The most recent mission (NG-3) occurred on April 19, 2026, and successfully demonstrated the first reuse of a first-stage booster, although the upper stage failed to deliver its satellite payload to the intended orbit.