Current community forecast
Yes 94.4%
Forecasters
6
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleMay 29, 26, 6:53 AM UTCJan 1, 28, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
On May 28, 2026, a Blue Origin New Glenn rocket exploded in a massive fireball during a pre-launch static fire test at Cape Canaveral's Launch Complex 36 (LC-36) ahead of its planned fourth mission (NG-4).
- Given the extensive infrastructure damage, planned switch to 9x4, and possible destruction of the only other completed 7-engine booster, some including Eric Berger have speculated the company may skip directly to 9x4.
- The market will resolve as no if Blue officially confirms they will move directly to 9x4, or if the next New Glenn flight is in the 9x4 configuration and there is no credible information that any future 7x2 flights are planned.
- Yes resolution requires a 7x2 rocket to intentionally lift off of the pad; success otherwise isn’t necessary.