Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 22, 2026, 9:35 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 82%
Forecasters
33
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleNov 25, 22, 9:28 AM UTCJan 1, 31, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market resolves to YES if:
- Officially reported (or best available estimate) of Monthly Active Users for any part of 2030 are higher for Mastodon than Twitter.
- Twitter doesn't exist in 2030 but Mastodon does and has at least 2 million active monthly users* at any point in 2030.
- And NO in every other case.
- *The number reported by them in November 2022.
- If they don't reach at least that in 2030 and Twitter doesn't exist then effectively they have both failed as far as this question is concerned.
