Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 91.7%
Forecasters
49
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleMar 1, 23, 1:34 AM UTCMar 1, 28, 3:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
Monthly active users (MAUs) are defined as unique users who accessed either Bluesky or Twitter at least once during a given month.
- The source of data for MAUs will be the official reports or announcements from Bluesky and Twitter, or a reputable third-party analytics service if none are available.
- The question will resolve as invalid if either Bluesky or Twitter cease to exist, merge, or change their name by March 1st, 2028.
Open markets
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $76,750 or above99%
- $76,500 or above99%
- $76,250 or above99%
+77 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.5M
- 24h Vol
- $1.5M
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $72,000 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,500 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+10.0pt31.7%
- 200-219+8.0pt23.1%
- 160-179-4.0pt19.2%
+23 more outcomes
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 88° to 89°+7.0pt33.6%
- 90° or above+18.0pt32.7%
- 86° to 87°-13.0pt23.1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- Houston+69.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+6.0pt99%
- Los Angeles+71.0pt75%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $229.5K
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- 65-89+29.0pt50%
- 40-64+0.5pt46.1%
- 90-114-2.9pt3.9%
+7 more outcomes
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Bluesky social have more monthly active users than Twitter by March 1st, 2028??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 92% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Bluesky social have more monthly active users than Twitter by March 1st, 2028? resolve?
- Will Bluesky social have more monthly active users than Twitter by March 1st, 2028? is scheduled to resolve on March 1, 2028.
- How is Will Bluesky social have more monthly active users than Twitter by March 1st, 2028? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Monthly active users (MAUs) are defined as unique users who accessed either Bluesky or Twitter at least once during a given month.