Will LLMs estimate a probability over 60% that the origin of COVID was a lab leak in 2034?
ChinaOne-OffAIHealth & Medicine7y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 61.6%
No 61.6%Forecasters
16
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 minutes ago
May 27, 23, 11:08 PM UTCMay 2, 34, 6:59 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
On May 1 2034 I will identify the top LLM assistant from OpenAI available for <100$ a month and run the following question five independent times and average the results.
- If the average estimate from the five outlets is over 60% the claim resolves true.
- If openAI has no suitable model I'll find the best similar model.
- I'll do this from the US as a US citizen.
- Here is the prompt
- Please reply with JSON following the template, for each type of media: New York Times, the New Yorker, the Economist, the Guardian UK, China's People's Daily.
