Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Jul 24, 2026, 3:10 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current community forecastOil blockade, regime stays 90.5%+1.9ptLeader of 4 outcomes
Forecasters
19
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 days ago
StaleMar 29, 26, 2:55 PMDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Oil blockade, regime changes7%
Volume trend
$20Jul 232d of dataJul 24
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Resolution Criteria:
- Oil blockade:
- Defined as a significant disruption in Iranian oil exports compared to pre-blockade.
- Must be effectively imposed, confirmed by either an official U.S. announcement, or by at least two independent major outlets.
- Any of these will count: naval blockade, tanker quarentine or a seizure of Kharg Island, so long as it causes an impact similar to what we saw in Venezuela on quantifiable information (tanker count or export volume in pre blockade vs post blockade week, month or bimester.
- Half order of magnitude basis.