Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 56.2%
Forecasters
3
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleJun 18, 26, 10:58 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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KalshiRules
I've been working on an epic historical fantasy novel for several years.
- As of the creation of this market, I have written about 131k words (roughly 580 pages), and I estimate that I am about 90% done, but I think any novelist would tell you that these kinds of estimates are tricky.
- Progress has slowed to a crawl since my second child was born last October, but I am determined to finish it.
- Resolves YES if the final chapter is completed by December 31st, 2026 Otherwise Resolves NO
- Some useful context:
- I have finished four first drafts of previous novels, ranging in length from ~60k to ~120k words.
Open markets
EntertainmentPOLYMARKET"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?
- 950 - 960m+8.5pt76.5%
- 940 - 950m-11.0pt18.6%
- 960 - 970m-0.1pt2%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $398.4K
- 24h Vol
- $106K
KALSHIPrimetime · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 5099%
- Above 5599%
- Above 60+2.0pt99%
+10 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $212.1K
- 24h Vol
- $105.5K
KALSHINext James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond
- Jack Lowden+7.0pt45%
- Jack Barton-5.0pt20%
- Callum Turner-5.0pt18%
+27 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.1M
POLYMARKETNext James Bond actor?
- Jack Lowden+24.1pt46.2%
- No Bond chosen-1.5pt19.8%
- Jack Barton-1.4pt10.4%
+21 more outcomes
KALSHIRunner · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 45+15.0pt99%
- Above 50+39.0pt97%
- Above 55+42.0pt84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $307.5K
KALSHIPractical Magic 2 · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 45-51.0pt16%
- Above 408%
- Above 50-57.0pt7%
+14 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $99.8K
- 24h Vol
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will I finish the first draft of my novel by the end of the year??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 56% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will I finish the first draft of my novel by the end of the year? resolve?
- Will I finish the first draft of my novel by the end of the year? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will I finish the first draft of my novel by the end of the year? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: I've been working on an epic historical fantasy novel for several years.