Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 72.3%
Forecasters
4
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 50 minutes ago
LaggingApr 7, 26, 2:54 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 5:00 AM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market resolves YES if hafnium unwrought metal price exceeds 4000 USD/kg on December 31, 2026.
- What is being measured: Hafnium unwrought metal spot price (USD/kg) on or nearest to December 31, 2026, based on USGS MCS annual average (for yearly markets) or Asian Metal / Argus Metals International spot quotes (for quarterly markets).
- YES if: Hafnium spot price >= 4000 USD/kg on December 31, 2026 NO if: Hafnium spot price < 4000 USD/kg on December 31, 2026
- Resolution sources (priority order):
- USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries — Hafnium section (usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/mcs) Published February annually; covers prior calendar year average price
- Asian Metal — hafnium unwrought China domestic price (asianmetal.com)
