Current community forecast
Yes 66%
Forecasters
16
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleOct 24, 23, 2:30 PM UTCDec 31, 28, 2:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will a 2026 science Nobel motivation mention AI, machine learning, or neural networks?
Manifold MarketsWill LLMs such as GPT-4 be seen as at most just a part of the solution to AGI? (Gary Marcus GPT-4 prediction #7)
Manifold MarketsWill Grok 5 beat the best human team at League of Legends in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhat will happen in 2026 related to AI?
Manifold MarketsPublic LLM exceeds superforecaster on Forecast bench by EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
This market is focused on more technical definition of LLMs than the market below.
- The engine must use end-to-end neural networks including LLMs.
- Explicit monte-carlo tree search or equivalent methods, which is standard in current chess algorithms, can not be used.
- This market resolves to YES if the NN score above 2,700 in classic elo rating.
- (Same as original market)
- https://manifold.markets/MP/will-a-large-language-models-beat-a?r=eWs
Open markets
Sports
POLYMARKETCincinnati Reds vs. Atlanta Braves
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Atlanta Braves: 1st 5 Innings — Over 2.5 total runs-7.5pt74%
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Atlanta Braves: 1st 5 Innings — Over 3.5 total runs-6.5pt65%
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Atlanta Braves: 1st 5 Innings — Over 4.5 total runs+0.5pt61%
+26 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $4.5M
- 24h Vol
- $4.5M
KALSHI2027 Pro Football Champion
- Los Angeles R11.3%
- Buffalo-1.0pt10.4%
- San Francisco7.8%
+29 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $131.5M
- 24h Vol
- $3M
KALSHIMilwaukee vs Philadelphia
- Philadelphia+27.0pt83.2%
- Milwaukee-26.0pt16.8%
- Total Vol
- $2.1M
- 24h Vol
- $2M
KALSHIFedEx Open de France Winner
- Tommy Fleetwood+2.5pt8.8%
- Ludvig Åberg-0.4pt7.9%
- Matt Fitzpatrick+0.7pt7%
+97 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHICassone vs Tabur
- Murphy Cassone57%
- Clement Tabur43%
- Total Vol
- $1.8M
- 24h Vol
- $1.8M
KALSHICleveland vs Boston
- Cleveland+15.0pt61.4%
- Boston-16.0pt38.6%
- Total Vol
- $1.6M
- 24h Vol
- $1.5M
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will end-to-end neural networks such as LLMs can beat the best human player in chess by 2028??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 66% as of September 22, 2026.
- When does Will end-to-end neural networks such as LLMs can beat the best human player in chess by 2028? resolve?
- Will end-to-end neural networks such as LLMs can beat the best human player in chess by 2028? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2028.
- How is Will end-to-end neural networks such as LLMs can beat the best human player in chess by 2028? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market is focused on more technical definition of LLMs than the market below.