Will mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
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Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Yes 70.2%
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16
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Updated 13 hours ago
StaleNov 1, 23, 7:46 PM UTCJan 2, 30, 6:59 AM UTC
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"Mass-movement political activism" = groups that organize protests, do letter-writing campaigns to congressmen, etc... people talking into megaphones, a somewhat simplified message & somewhat adversarial approach to politics, you get the idea.
- As opposed to think-tank-style groups that are primarily focused on elite persuasion or shaping detailed legislation.
- Examples include "PauseAI" and the people who hired this truck protesting against Responsible Scaling Policies.
- The message of the activism doesn't have to be "pause AI" or even X-risk focused; it just has to be broadly pro-regulation of AI.
- To resolve this question, in 2030 I will look at publicly-available grantmaking documentation (like this Openphil website, for example), adding up all the grants between October 2023 and January 2030 that support mass-movement AI activism, and resolve YES if the grand total exceeds ten million US dollars.
- "EA funders" means places like OpenPhil, LTFF, SFF, Longview Philanthropy, Founders Fund, GiveWell, ACX Grants, etc. Some example "EA-adjacent" funding sources that wouldn't count, even if their money goes directly to this cause area: Patrick Collison, Yuri Milner, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Elon Musk, Vitalik Buterin, Peter Thiel.
