Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Yes (97%)
Resolved: Oct 11, 2026, 12:38 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
Yes
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
81%
ConsensusData quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 11, 2026, 11:50 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Yes97%
No3%
Won
Lost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Trump’s Truth Social ($DJT) buy Bitcoin? (Trump Media & Technology Group) 🤑📈🏦🟠
Manifold MarketsWill $Kendu reach 100B MC in next bull run?
Manifold Markets[Add options] Which of these highly unlikely things will happen to me this century?
Manifold MarketsInk FDV above ___ one day after launch?
PolymarketWill Kraken's valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketNvidia market cap on 1 March 2027
Manifold MarketsRules
Dome is an YC-funded (Fall 25) startup creating a unified prediction markets API.
- This is an experimental market format for predicting outcomes of interesting startups I'll probably create few more in the future.
- Link: https://www.ycombinator.com/companies/dome
- Success criteria: Resolves YES iff Dome achieves at least one of these in 2026:
- $5M+ funding
- $1M+ revenue
