This market resolved: Yes (97.7%)
Resolved: Sep 30, 2026, 3:14 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Sep 30, 2026, 11:41 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Yes97.7%
No2.299999999999997%
Won
Lost
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PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- The market resolves YES if any daily average CO2 measurement at Mauna Loa Observatory reaches or exceeds 432.25 ppm on any day in 2026.
- Resolution will be determined using daily mean data from NOAA GML (Mauna Loa Observatory), available at https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/data.html.
- Daily averages are filtered to represent "background" conditions, excluding local emissions or volcanic influences, and require low variability within and between hours.
- The 2026 annual average CO2 concentration at Mauna Loa is forecast to be 429.4 ± 0.6 ppm.
- At Mauna Loa, the highest monthly value each year occurs in May, with May 2024 reaching just under 427 ppm.