Will China announce a nationwide policy to materially slow frontier AI development before December 31, 2027
ChinaOne-Off1yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 87%
Forecasters
0
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleOct 3, 26, 12:33 AM UTCDec 30, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
This market resolves to YES if, by December 31, 2027, a Chinese central-government body announces a new nationwide policy explicitly intended to slow or limit frontier AI development.
- Examples include a moratorium or cap on frontier-model training, approval requirements for large training runs, nationwide limits on AI compute expansion, or a stated pause in frontier AI development.
- Ordinary AI regulation, content rules, model registration, efficiency requirements, foreign-technology restrictions, and local policies don't qualify unless they are part of a nationwide central-government policy.
- Vague statements about “responsible” or “orderly” AI development do not qualify.
