Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 95%
Forecasters
121
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleOct 23, 23, 1:36 AM UTCJan 2, 27, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
I've been chatting with @BTE about their plan to found a competitor to Manifold.
- The core plan is a little differerent from the direction Manifold has gone, and seems like it could go very well or completely fail.
- I've been asked not to share the details.
- Resolves subjectivly based on whether it overall seems to have worked out.
- (Resolves N/A if it's not attempted.) I won't bet.
- Update 2025-03-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Deadline for Resolution: The market will now automatically resolve as NO at the end of 2026 unless BTE demonstrates something real.
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will BTE's secret plan work??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 95% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will BTE's secret plan work? resolve?
- Will BTE's secret plan work? is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2027.
- How is Will BTE's secret plan work? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: I've been chatting with @BTE about their plan to found a competitor to Manifold.