Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 95.5%
Forecasters
60
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleFeb 19, 23, 12:53 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Elder Scrolls VI released by December 31?
PolymarketAny one of Half Life 3, the Winds of Winter, or Elder Scrolls 6 announced before the end of 2026
Manifold MarketsWhen will Elder Scrolls VI be released?
KalshiWhat will be the “All Reviews” rating for The Elder Scrolls VI on Steam, 6 months after the release date?
Manifold MarketsWill The Elder Scrolls 6 release before the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiRules
Tod Howard recently confirmed that TES VI is still in pre-production, despite originally teasing the game at E3 2018: https://www.ign.com/articles/todd-howard-bethesda-fallout-5-elder-scrolls-6-starfield?utm_source=twitter
- Will resolve to YES if the game is available for members of the public to purchase, download and play on any major console/platform, before January 1st 2027.
- Will resolve to NO if the game is only available as part of a "public beta" or similar.
- If the game does not explicitly contain "The Elder Scrolls VI" in its title, I will resolve at my discretion whether it is still The Elder Scrolls VI de facto.
Open markets
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $76,750 or above99%
- $76,500 or above99%
- $76,250 or above99%
+77 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.5M
- 24h Vol
- $1.5M
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $72,000 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,500 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+10.0pt31.7%
- 200-219+8.0pt23.1%
- 160-179-4.0pt19.2%
+23 more outcomes
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 88° to 89°+7.0pt33.6%
- 90° or above+18.0pt32.7%
- 86° to 87°-13.0pt23.1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- Houston+69.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+6.0pt99%
- Los Angeles+71.0pt75%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $229.5K
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- 65-89+29.0pt50%
- 40-64+0.5pt46.1%
- 90-114-2.9pt3.9%
+7 more outcomes
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- Nasdaq-100 price on Sep 8, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- When will Apple release the iPhone 18?
- Highest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- Which company has the best AI model end of September?
- Best AI at the end of 2026?
- ETH price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- When will Apple Inc. release the iPhone 18 Pro?
- Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by which date?
- Highest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- Next James Bond actor?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Bethesda publicly release The Elder Scrolls VI before 2027??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 96% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Bethesda publicly release The Elder Scrolls VI before 2027? resolve?
- Will Bethesda publicly release The Elder Scrolls VI before 2027? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will Bethesda publicly release The Elder Scrolls VI before 2027? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Tod Howard recently confirmed that TES VI is still in pre-production, despite originally teasing the game at E3 2018: https://www.ign.com/articles/todd-howard-bethesda-fallout-5-elder-scrolls-6-starfield?utm_source=twitter