Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 3:37 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 96.6%
Forecasters
62
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 29 minutes ago
Feb 19, 23, 12:53 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Bethesda publicly announce a release date for The Elder Scrolls VI before January 1, 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Elder Scrolls VI be released?
KalshiElder Scrolls VI released by December 31?
PolymarketAny one of Half Life 3, the Winds of Winter, or Elder Scrolls 6 announced before the end of 2026
Manifold MarketsWhat will be the “All Reviews” rating for The Elder Scrolls VI on Steam, 6 months after the release date?
Manifold MarketsWill the Elder Scrolls VI have cutscenes?
Manifold MarketsRules
Tod Howard recently confirmed that TES VI is still in pre-production, despite originally teasing the game at E3 2018: https://www.ign.com/articles/todd-howard-bethesda-fallout-5-elder-scrolls-6-starfield?utm_source=twitter
- Will resolve to YES if the game is available for members of the public to purchase, download and play on any major console/platform, before January 1st 2027.
- Will resolve to NO if the game is only available as part of a "public beta" or similar.
- If the game does not explicitly contain "The Elder Scrolls VI" in its title, I will resolve at my discretion whether it is still The Elder Scrolls VI de facto.