Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 23, 2026, 2:29 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastYes 70.5%
Forecasters
2
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingMay 4, 26, 8:22 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
Resolves YES if, on or before 2026-12-31, any government or sovereign-wealth-fund publicly announces a single AI-infrastructure investment commitment of $10 billion USD or more.
- "Sovereign-AI deal" includes: government-funded AI compute capacity, sovereign-cloud investments, government-AI-procurement frameworks with stated budgets, sovereign-wealth-fund equity investments in AI infrastructure companies, government data-center build commitments.
- The deal must be ≥$10B in stated commitment value.
- Source of truth: government press releases, sovereign-wealth-fund public communications, ministerial-level announcements, publicly reported via primary sources (gov.* domains) or major news outlets citing primary sources.
- A single line-item in a national budget that allocates ≥$10B to AI counts.
- A multi-year program where the announced commitment ≥$10B counts.