Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 64.9%
Forecasters
9
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleOct 29, 25, 6:53 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 7:46 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Which Merch Shop designs will be the best sellers EOY?
Manifold MarketsMANA MERCH SHOP: Which designs will be added to the mana merch store?
Manifold MarketsDutch Bros same-shop sales growth in Q3
KalshiWill I have a million mana in profit by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsDutch Bros same-shop sales growth in fiscal 2026
Kalshi$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
PolymarketRules
I've submitted one design to the relevant market so far, but I'm hoping to get in two or three more when I have time.
- Any one of my designs has to get approved by Genzy or an Admin or requested by another mod to be put up for contention and it has to be chosen for the shop in the end for this to resolve YES.
- It's unclear when the second condition will be known, so this close date was chosen for convenience and might change.
- If my design is announced as chosen (or all my designs aren't included in the full set of those chosen), that's sufficient to resolve even if the merch shop is delayed significantly or what merch is available is different than what was announced.
- My submitted designs:
- Cranes In Form (repeating pattern)
Open markets
Business & CorporatePOLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+9.8pt96%
- $25M+15.5pt94%
- $50M+31.5pt86%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $354.3K
- 24h Vol
- $354.2K
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- 40-64+4.0pt50%
- 65-89+27.0pt47.1%
- 90-114-2.4pt2.9%
+7 more outcomes
POLYMARKETLargest Company end of December 2026?
- NVIDIA+1.0pt78.4%
- Apple+0.6pt13.7%
- Alphabet6.9%
+5 more outcomes
KALSHIWashington aerospace manufacturing employment average in 2026
- Above 80,000 jobs98%
- Above 81,000 jobs95%
- Above 82,000 jobs+3.0pt92%
+10 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.5K
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 8 - September 15, 2026?
- 180-199-1.0pt18.2%
- 200-219-1.0pt18.2%
- 160-179+1.0pt14.1%
+23 more outcomes
POLYMARKETLargest Company end of September?
- NVIDIA+0.3pt98%
- Apple-0.2pt2%
- Alphabet0%
+6 more outcomes
- Boeing commercial airplane deliveries in 2026
- California FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026
- Elon Musk # of tweets in September 2026?
- Illinois nuclear electricity generation in 2026
- 3rd Largest Company end of September?
- Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- First to hit $1B FDV: ANSEM, CASHCAT, AI, or NET?
- Taco Bell same-store sales growth in Q3
- Will GameStop acquire eBay in 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will any of my designs be chosen for the Mana Merch Shop by end 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 65% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will any of my designs be chosen for the Mana Merch Shop by end 2026? resolve?
- Will any of my designs be chosen for the Mana Merch Shop by end 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will any of my designs be chosen for the Mana Merch Shop by end 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: I've submitted one design to the relevant market so far, but I'm hoping to get in two or three more when I have time.