will any movie released in 2026 make more than Avatar { in 2026}
One-OffBox Office / StreamingEntertainment3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 91.8%
Forecasters
15
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleFeb 3, 26, 7:39 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will a new numbered, mainline Star Wars movie be released before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhat year will the next Star Trek movie be released?
Manifold MarketsWhat year will the live-action Legend of Zelda movie be released?
Manifold MarketsRunner · Rotten Tomatoes score
KalshiWhat will be the #2 US Netflix show this week?
PolymarketWild Horse Nine · Rotten Tomatoes score
KalshiRules
Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves YES if any movie with a worldwide theatrical release date in 2026 earns more than $2,923,710,708 in total worldwide box office gross.
- Resolution will be determined using data from Box Office Mojo, which tracks cumulative worldwide box office totals including all theatrical releases and re-releases.
- The threshold is based on Avatar's estimated $2.92 billion worldwide gross, which remains the highest-grossing movie of all time.
- Avatar (2009) earned an estimated $2.92 billion at the box office worldwide, putting it ahead of "Avengers: Endgame" at $2.8 billion.
- Avatar's 2022 sequel "Avatar: The Way of Water" brought audiences back to Pandora for a global box office gross of $2.32 billion, demonstrating that even the most successful sequels have struggled to approach the original's record.
Open markets
Box Office / StreamingKALSHIRunner · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 45-3.0pt96%
- Above 5095%
- Above 55-7.0pt84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $362.1K
- 24h Vol
- $42.3K
POLYMARKETWhat will be the #2 US Netflix show this week?
- Death of the Pastor's Wife: Season 155%
- Crew Girl: Season 134%
- The Gentlemen: Season 233%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $544.5
KALSHIDisney+ App Downloads in September
- Above 11945%
- Above 123+2.0pt37%
- Above 12929%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $8.2K
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETHow many views will the #1 Show on Netflix have this week?
- 6M+57%
- 8M+55%
- 12M+53%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $35
KALSHIWild Horse Nine · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 4599%
- Above 5099%
- Above 5599%
+11 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $88.6K
- 24h Vol
- $52.9
KALSHIParamount+ App Downloads in September
- Above 7957%
- Above 82-1.0pt51%
- Above 8351%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $11.8K
- 24h Vol
- Will SHREK 5 be delayed?
- How many people will attend Broadway shows during the 2026–27 season?
- Who will be the next Bond girl?
- Will Avengers: Doomsday be delayed?
- What will be the top grossing movie in the US in 2026?
- Will The Batman: Part II be delayed?
- Will Dune: Part Three be delayed?
- "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" grosses >$2.5 billion worldwide?
- "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" breaks the record for the biggest domestic lifetime gross of all time?
- Will the re-release of Avenger Endgame Surpass the box office of Supergirl?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for will any movie released in 2026 make more than Avatar { in 2026}?
- Manifold Markets prices No at 92% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does will any movie released in 2026 make more than Avatar { in 2026} resolve?
- will any movie released in 2026 make more than Avatar { in 2026} is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is will any movie released in 2026 make more than Avatar { in 2026} settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution Criteria