Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 57.5%
Forecasters
5
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleMar 30, 25, 5:27 AM UTCDec 31, 34, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketTaipei Mayor Election Winner
PolymarketRules
"On June 30, 2024, a Tianlong-3 first stage detached from its stand during a static fire test due to a structural failure, resulting in an unintentional liftoff."
- Resolves YES if any space-capable non-ICBM rocket lifts off from the pad (or other infrastructure) under the power of its own engines for at least one whole second when it was not intended to (the vehicle must remain off the ground for ≥1s and at least one engine must remain operational for ≥1s).
- Resolves NO if this hasn't happened by EOY 2034 (UTC)
- Examples of situations that would count:
- Lifting off during a static fire such as in the Tianlong-3 incident
- Lift off during a launch countdown but distinctly prior to T-0 (for simplicity let's say at least ten seconds prior)
