Will annual copper production from bio-leaching of primary sulfides exceed 10 kt by end of 2028?
CommoditiesOne-OffChessSports2yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 62.1%
Forecasters
8
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleFeb 9, 26, 8:26 PM UTCDec 31, 28, 5:00 AM UTC
Trends
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KalshiRules
Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves YES if total annual copper cathode production from bio-leaching of primary sulfide ores exceeds 10,000 tonnes in calendar year 2028.
- Combined output from Nuton-enabled sites (JCM + any new deployments) plus any other commercial bio-leaching operations on primary sulfides totals >10 kt
- Production data published in operator annual reports, technical reports, or verified by independent commodity consultancies
- Total primary sulfide bio-leach production remains below 10 kt in CY2028
- Only pilot/test production (not commercial-scale) exceeds threshold
