Will Kamoa-Kakula copper production exceed 500,000 tonnes for calendar year 2027?
CommoditiesOne-Off1yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 5:51 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 87.7%
Forecasters
7
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleApr 7, 26, 1:26 PM UTCJul 1, 28, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
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KalshiRules
Resolves YES if Kamoa-Kakula's total copper in concentrate production for the calendar year January–December 2027 exceeds 500,000 tonnes (100% basis), as reported in Ivanhoe Mines quarterly production reports.
- Resolves NO otherwise.
- Settlement is June 30, 2028 to allow time for Q4 2027 production data to be published (Ivanhoe reports quarterly with ~45 day lag).
- The Q4 2027 report is typically available by mid-February 2028.
- Context: The 500,000 tpa target was Ivanhoe's flagship milestone — the point at which Kamoa-Kakula would rank among the world's top 3 copper mines.
- Originally targeted for 2027, flooding in May 2025 and a reserve downgrade in March 2026 pushed the timeline to 2028.
