Will a country other than the United States land a human on the moon before the end of 2031?
ChinaOne-Off5yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 64%
Forecasters
30
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleApr 2, 24, 2:28 PM UTCJan 1, 32, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will SpaceX land a human on the Moon before they land a human on Mars?
Manifold MarketsWill a human from any nation other than the United States land on the Moon and successfully return by the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsWho will win the 2032 united states presidential election?
Manifold MarketsHuman moon landing in 2026?
PolymarketWill Xi Jinping visit the United States?
KalshiHow many human screwworm cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
KalshiRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Open markets
ChinaPOLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Total Vol
- $41.1M
- 24h Vol
- $116.3K
POLYMARKETXi Jinping out before 2027?
- No+0.2pt96%
- Yes-0.2pt4%
- Total Vol
- $13.1M
- 24h Vol
- $45K
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Beijing on September 9?
- 26°C+11.5pt52.4%
- 27°C+1.0pt22.9%
- 25°C-3.0pt16.2%
+8 more outcomes
POLYMARKETChina x Philippines military clash before 2027?
- No72.3%
- Yes27.7%
- Total Vol
- $414.1K
- 24h Vol
- $15.6K
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
- No+1.0pt89.1%
- Yes-1.0pt10.9%
- Total Vol
- $3.1M
- 24h Vol
- $12.8K
POLYMARKETWill Xi Jinping visit US by which date?
- October 31+1.4pt98%
- December 31+1.7pt97%
- September 30+0.5pt95%
+3 more outcomes
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
- Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
- How many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026?
- Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?
- Kinmen County Magistrate Election Winner
- Will Xi Jinping visit the United States?
- Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
- China x Japan military clash before 2027?
- Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will a country other than the United States land a human on the moon before the end of 2031??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 64% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will a country other than the United States land a human on the moon before the end of 2031? resolve?
- Will a country other than the United States land a human on the moon before the end of 2031? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2032.