Who will win the 2026 Massachusetts Democratic primary for US Senate
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection1moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastEd Markey (Incumbent) 88.9%+14.0ptLeader of 10 outcomes
Forecasters
37
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 17 minutes ago
Jul 4, 25, 12:13 PMSep 16, 26, 10:59 PM
Trends
0.5%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Ed Markey (Incumbent)89%
Compare venues· Ed Markey (Incumbent)
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manifold MarketsThis page | — | 89% | — | — | — | 17 minutes ago | |
 PredictIt90% match · verified | — | 81% | — | — | — | 17 minutes ago | Open → |
Also available on PredictIt
Who will win the 2026 Massachusetts Democratic Senate nomination?
1y
81%
28%
1%
Retail prediction exchange
PREDICTITRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to the candidate who wins the 2026 Massachusetts Democratic primary for the U.S.
- Senate seat.
- The outcome will be determined based on official results published by the Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth.
- If the primary is canceled or no candidate is declared the winner, the market will resolve as N/A.
- Incumbent Senator Ed Markey, who has served since 2013, has announced his intention to seek re-election in 2026.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$80Jul 107d of dataJul 28
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Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to the candidate who wins the 2026 Massachusetts Democratic primary for the U.S.
- Senate seat.
- The outcome will be determined based on official results published by the Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth.
- If the primary is canceled or no candidate is declared the winner, the market will resolve as N/A.
- Incumbent Senator Ed Markey, who has served since 2013, has announced his intention to seek re-election in 2026.