Who will win ballon d'or 2026?
One-Off2moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastHarry Kane 66%+22.7ptLeader of 4 outcomes
Forecasters
9
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 29 minutes ago
Jul 28, 26, 2:18 AMOct 26, 26, 11:00 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Harry Kane66%
Compare venues· Harry Kane
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketBest overall84% match · linked | High | 46% | — | $509.3K | $13.4M | 1 minute ago | Open → |
 Kalshi76% match · linked | High | 48% | — | $116.7K | $3.7M | 29 minutes ago | Open → |
 Myriad90% match · auto | Low | 30% | — | $0 | $0 | 29 minutes ago | Open → |
 Limitless84% match · linked | Low | 43% | — | $0 | $0 | 29 minutes ago | Open → |
| Manifold Markets76% match · linked | — | 47% | — | — | — | 29 minutes ago | Open → |
| Manifold MarketsThis page | — | 66% | — | — | — | 29 minutes ago | |
| Manifold Markets76% match · linked | — | 43% | — | — | — | 4 days ago | Open → |
| Manifold Markets84% match · linked | — | 43% | — | — | — | 3 days ago | Open → |
| Manifold Markets84% match · linked | — | 48% | — | — | — | 9 hours ago | Open → |
Also available on Myriad
Who wins the Ballon d’Or 2026?
15.6 pts2mo
-0.2pt30%
+0.0pt26.6%
+0.1pt13.9%
+6 more outcomes
30 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$0
24h Vol$0
MYRIADAlso available on Polymarket
Ballon d'Or Winner 2026
0.2 pts3mo
-0.2pt46.9%
-0.5pt24.5%
+0.7pt10.2%
+86 more outcomes
89 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$23.4M
24h Vol$509.3K
POLYMARKETAlso available on Manifold Markets
Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?
5mo
+2.2pt47.7%
-1.4pt22.1%
-0.1pt14.8%
+12 more outcomes
Community forecast57 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Manifold Markets
Who will win the men's 2025/2026 Ballon d’Or?
3mo
+0.7pt43.1%
-2.1pt25.3%
+1.5pt15.8%
+5 more outcomes
Community forecast30 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Limitless
Ballon d'Or Winner 2026
3mo
50%
42.5%
24.5%
+7 more outcomes
22 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$827.3
24h Vol$0
LIMITLESSAlso available on Kalshi
Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?
5mo
38.4%
-2.0pt18.4%
+2.0pt10.4%
+28 more outcomes
80 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$5.9M
24h Vol$116.7K
KALSHIAlso available on Manifold Markets
Who will win the Ballon d'Or 2026? 🏆⚽
4mo
+1.0pt47.2%
-1.1pt23%
-2.7pt11%
+16 more outcomes
Community forecast184 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Manifold Markets
Who will win the Ballon d'Or 2026? 🏆⚽
5mo
-4.4pt43%
-4.7pt27.3%
15.8%
+4 more outcomes
Community forecast40 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$1.3k99.0%KALSHIOusmane Dembele — No6h ago
KALSHIOusmane Dembele — No6h ago$3.1k99.8%POLYMARKETWill Cole Palmer win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? — Nokimimisoul138h ago
POLYMARKETWill Cole Palmer win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? — Nokimimisoul138h ago$1.0k10.0%POLYMARKETWill Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? — Yescrypto-basenji13h ago
POLYMARKETWill Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? — Yescrypto-basenji13h ago$3.0k97.0%KALSHILionel Messi — Noyesterday
KALSHILionel Messi — Noyesterday$4.6k48.0%KALSHIHarry Kane — Yes2d ago
KALSHIHarry Kane — Yes2d ago$1.5k15.0%KALSHIKylian Mbappe — Yes2d ago
KALSHIKylian Mbappe — Yes2d ago$2.0k15.0%KALSHIKylian Mbappe — Yes2d ago
KALSHIKylian Mbappe — Yes2d ago$1.8k91.0%KALSHIRodri — No3d ago
KALSHIRodri — No3d agoVolume trend
$105Jul 282d of dataJul 29
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Rules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.