Current implied probability
Kylian Mbappé 11.6%Leader of 10 outcomes
Market quality
28 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$0
Liquidity
$0
Low liquidityBid / Ask
-
Market data
Updated 28 minutes ago
May 6, 26, 7:47 AMNov 1, 26, 3:59 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Kylian Mbappé12%
Compare venues· Harry Kane
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketBest overall94% match · auto | High | 43% | 0pt | $240.3K | $12.6M | 8 minutes ago | Open → |
 Kalshi88% match · linked | High | 47% | +4pt | $196.7K | $3.4M | 28 minutes ago | Open → |
 LimitlessThis page | Low | 43% | 0pt | $0 | $0 | 28 minutes ago | |
 Myriad76% match · linked | Low | 37% | -6pt | $0 | $0 | 28 minutes ago | Open → |
 Manifold Markets88% match · verified | — | 41% | -2pt | — | — | 28 minutes ago | Open → |
| Manifold Markets88% match · verified | — | 43% | +0pt | — | — | 5 hours ago | Open → |
| Manifold Markets88% match · linked | — | 43% | 0pt | — | — | yesterday | Open → |
| Manifold Markets85% match · verified | — | 43% | +0pt | — | — | 17 hours ago | Open → |
Also available on Polymarket
Ballon d'Or Winner 2026
2.3%3mo
+2.3%43%
+0.4%26%
12%
+86 more outcomes
100 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$21.3M
24h Vol$240.3K
POLYMARKETAlso available on Kalshi
Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?
2.0%5mo
+2.0%47%
-2.0%24%
-1.0%13%
+28 more outcomes
89 • High qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$5.4M
24h Vol$196.7K
KALSHIAlso available on Manifold Markets
Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?
5mo
+1.3%43.1%
-0.2%24.1%
-0.9%15%
+12 more outcomes
Community forecast57 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Manifold Markets
Who will win the Ballon d'Or 2026? 🏆⚽
4mo
41%
-1.2%24.7%
+0.5%14.9%
+16 more outcomes
Community forecast179 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Manifold Markets
Who will win the Ballon d'Or 2026? 🏆⚽
5mo
-4.4%43%
-4.7%27.3%
15.8%
+4 more outcomes
Community forecast40 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Manifold Markets
Who will win the men's 2025/2026 Ballon d’Or?
3mo
+0.7%43.1%
-2.1%25.3%
+1.5%15.8%
+5 more outcomes
Community forecast30 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Myriad
Who wins the Ballon d’Or 2026?
22.6%3mo
-0.2%36.8%
+0.5%21.4%
+0.7%16.9%
+6 more outcomes
28 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$0
24h Vol$0
MYRIADRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$3.0k99.8%POLYMARKETWill Federico Valverde win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? — Noafleming13h ago
POLYMARKETWill Federico Valverde win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? — Noafleming13h ago$1.0k88.5%POLYMARKETWill Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? — NoDistruction14h ago
POLYMARKETWill Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? — NoDistruction14h ago$2.8k46.0%KALSHIHarry Kane — Yes15h ago
KALSHIHarry Kane — Yes15h ago$2.3k45.0%KALSHIHarry Kane — Yesyesterday
KALSHIHarry Kane — Yesyesterday$3.4k85.0%KALSHIKylian Mbappe — No2d ago
KALSHIKylian Mbappe — No2d ago$1.3k85.0%KALSHIKylian Mbappe — No2d ago
KALSHIKylian Mbappe — No2d ago$1.0k45.0%KALSHIHarry Kane — Yes2d ago
KALSHIHarry Kane — Yes2d ago$2.6k88.0%KALSHIRodri — No4d ago
KALSHIRodri — No4d agoVolume trend
$0.00Jul 621d of dataJul 26
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Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.