Data quality warningNot meaningfully priced
Data as of Jul 15, 2026, 4:20 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-2
Current implied probability
Kylian Mbappé 16%+0.6%Leader of 9 outcomes
Market quality
28 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$0
Liquidity
$0
Low liquidityBid / Ask
-
Market data
Updated 17 minutes ago
Feb 24, 26, 4:11 PMOct 26, 26, 7:00 PM
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Kylian Mbappé16%
Compare venues· Lamine Yamal
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketBest overall76% match · linked | High | 26% | — | $252.1K | $12.4M | 17 minutes ago | Open → |
 Kalshi76% match · linked | High | 24% | — | $197.4K | $3.4M | 17 minutes ago | Open → |
 MyriadThis page | Low | 38% | — | $0 | $0 | 17 minutes ago | |
 Limitless76% match · linked | Low | 26% | — | $0 | $0 | 17 minutes ago | Open → |
 Manifold Markets76% match · auto | — | 25% | — | — | — | 17 minutes ago | Open → |
| Manifold Markets76% match · linked | — | 24% | — | — | — | 2 hours ago | Open → |
| Manifold Markets76% match · linked | — | 27% | — | — | — | yesterday | Open → |
| Manifold Markets76% match · linked | — | 25% | — | — | — | 14 hours ago | Open → |
Also available on Polymarket
Ballon d'Or Winner 2026
2.3%3mo
+2.3%43%
+0.5%26%
12%
+86 more outcomes
100 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$21.2M
24h Vol$252.1K
POLYMARKETAlso available on Kalshi
Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?
2.0%5mo
+2.0%47%
-2.0%24%
+2.0%15%
+28 more outcomes
89 • High qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$5.4M
24h Vol$197.4K
KALSHIAlso available on Manifold Markets
Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?
5mo
+1.3%43.1%
-0.2%24.1%
-0.9%15%
+12 more outcomes
Community forecast57 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Manifold Markets
Who will win the Ballon d'Or 2026? 🏆⚽
4mo
41%
-1.5%24.6%
+0.9%15.1%
+16 more outcomes
Community forecast179 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Manifold Markets
Who will win the men's 2025/2026 Ballon d’Or?
3mo
+0.7%43.1%
-2.1%25.3%
+1.5%15.8%
+5 more outcomes
Community forecast30 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Manifold Markets
Who will win the Ballon d'Or 2026? 🏆⚽
5mo
-4.4%43%
-4.7%27.3%
15.8%
+4 more outcomes
Community forecast40 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Limitless
Ballon d'Or Winner 2026
3mo
50%
42.5%
25.8%
+7 more outcomes
28 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$827.3
24h Vol$0
LIMITLESSRules
### **Market Dates:**
- - **Market Period:** From the publication date to October 26, 2026, at 7:00 PM UTC. - **Market Close:** October 26, 2026, at 07:00 PM UTC, before the Ballon d’Or ceremony starts as scheduled. - **Resolution Time:** This market will be resolved once the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or has been officially announced
- ### **Resolution Criteria:**
- - Resolves to the name of the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or.
- For example, if Ousmane Dembélé is declared the winner, this market resolves to “**Dembélé**”.
- In case a player that is not one of the options wins, this market resolves to “**Other**”
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$3.0k99.8%POLYMARKETWill Federico Valverde win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? — Noafleming10h ago
POLYMARKETWill Federico Valverde win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? — Noafleming10h ago$1.0k88.5%POLYMARKETWill Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? — NoDistruction11h ago
POLYMARKETWill Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? — NoDistruction11h ago$2.8k46.0%KALSHIHarry Kane — Yes12h ago
KALSHIHarry Kane — Yes12h ago$2.3k45.0%KALSHIHarry Kane — Yes22h ago
KALSHIHarry Kane — Yes22h ago$3.4k85.0%KALSHIKylian Mbappe — No2d ago
KALSHIKylian Mbappe — No2d ago$1.3k85.0%KALSHIKylian Mbappe — No2d ago
KALSHIKylian Mbappe — No2d ago$1.0k45.0%KALSHIHarry Kane — Yes2d ago
KALSHIHarry Kane — Yes2d ago$2.6k88.0%KALSHIRodri — No3d ago
KALSHIRodri — No3d agoRelated Markets
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### **Market Dates:**
- - **Market Period:** From the publication date to October 26, 2026, at 7:00 PM UTC. - **Market Close:** October 26, 2026, at 07:00 PM UTC, before the Ballon d’Or ceremony starts as scheduled. - **Resolution Time:** This market will be resolved once the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or has been officially announced
- ### **Resolution Criteria:**
- - Resolves to the name of the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or.
- For example, if Ousmane Dembélé is declared the winner, this market resolves to “**Dembélé**”.
- In case a player that is not one of the options wins, this market resolves to “**Other**”