Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 50%
Forecasters
1
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleSep 7, 26, 3:41 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:40 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Drake or Jay-Z release an album in September?
Manifold MarketsWill Drake release a new album by which date?
PolymarketWhen will Miley Cyrus release a new album?
KalshiWho will release a new album in 2026?
KalshiWill Lana Del Rey release a new album by which date?
PolymarketWill MrBeast release an album this year?
KalshiRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Open markets
EntertainmentPOLYMARKET"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?
- 950 - 960m+42.0pt76%
- 940 - 950m-42.0pt19.2%
- 960 - 970m+0.2pt1.9%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $344.8K
- 24h Vol
- $102.9K
KALSHINext James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond
- Jack Lowden+32.0pt61%
- Jack Barton-2.0pt19%
- Callum Turner-11.0pt16%
+27 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.1M
POLYMARKETNext James Bond actor?
- Jack Lowden+13.1pt32%
- No Bond chosen-7.8pt16%
- Jack Barton+0.9pt14%
+21 more outcomes
KALSHIBig Brother Season 28 · Winner
- Yash Patel+6.0pt28.4%
- Barrett Pfeiffer+2.0pt18.4%
- Drew Campbell-1.0pt12.8%
+14 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKET# of views of next MrBeast video on week 1?
- 70-80M+8.8pt63%
- 80-90M+3.0pt35%
- 60-70M-4.6pt1%
+4 more outcomes
KALSHIOscar Winner: Best Picture
- The Odyssey52%
- Dune: Part Three13%
- The Black Ball11%
+35 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $4.9M
- 24h Vol
- $32.7K
- Primetime · Rotten Tomatoes score
- # of views of MrBeast video on day 3?
- Grand Theft Auto VI: Release date
- Oscar nominees: Best Picture
- Taylor Swift: Highest daily view count (September 7, 2026 - September 13, 2026)
- Emmy Winner: Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series
- Post Malone: Highest daily view count (August 31, 2026 - September 6, 2026)
- Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?
- Emmy Winner: Outstanding Comedy Series
- Morgan Wallen: Highest daily view count (August 31, 2026 - September 6, 2026)
- Emmy Winner: Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Who will release an album first. drake or jay-z??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 50% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Who will release an album first. drake or jay-z? resolve?
- Who will release an album first. drake or jay-z? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.