Current community forecast
Gukesh Dommaraju 34.8%Leader of 7 outcomes
Forecasters
8
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleMar 5, 26, 9:43 PM UTCDec 31, 35, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Magnus Carlsen compete for the FIDE Classical World Chess Championship before 2033?
Manifold MarketsWill Tom Aspinall successfully defend the UFC heavyweight title before 31 December 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Tom Aspinall successfully defend the UFC heavy weight title?
Manifold MarketsWill an AI successfully defend or prosecute someone in court before 2030
Manifold MarketsFIDE World Chess Championship 2026 Winner
Kalshi2026 World Chess Championship: Winner
PolymarketRules
Magnus successfully defended his title four times (in a rematch against Vishy, and then against Karjakin, Fabi, and Nepo) before stepping aside.
- Ding Liren won, and then lost to Gukesh.
- Now Gukesh has been playing poorly, and seems likely to lose even before his challenger has been selected.
- Who will be the next classical World Chess Champion to successfully defend their title, i.e. win as challenger and then win against the first person to challenge them?
- Resolves N/A if FIDE dissolves without an obvious successor organization, or if the world championship moves away from a defending-champion type model.