Current community forecast
Other 59.3%Leader of 6 outcomes
Forecasters
8
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleMar 5, 26, 9:43 PM UTCDec 31, 35, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Tom Aspinall successfully defend the UFC heavyweight title before 31 December 2026?
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Manifold MarketsWho will be World Chess Champion at the end of the 2020s?
Manifold MarketsFIDE World Chess Championship 2026 Winner
Kalshi2026 World Chess Championship: Winner
PolymarketFIDE World Top Chess Players: Top 5 Rated in October 2026
KalshiRules
Magnus successfully defended his title four times (in a rematch against Vishy, and then against Karjakin, Fabi, and Nepo) before stepping aside.
- Ding Liren won, and then lost to Gukesh.
- Now Gukesh has been playing poorly, and seems likely to lose even before his challenger has been selected.
- Who will be the next classical World Chess Champion to successfully defend their title, i.e. win as challenger and then win against the first person to challenge them?
- Resolves N/A if FIDE dissolves without an obvious successor organization, or if the world championship moves away from a defending-champion type model.
Open markets
SportsKALSHISabalenka vs Noskova
- Aryna Sabalenka+6.0pt74.5%
- Linda Noskova-5.0pt25.5%
- Total Vol
- $14.2M
- 24h Vol
- $13.1M
POLYMARKETCounter-Strike: G2 vs Astralis (BO3) - FISSURE PLAYGROUND Group A
- 2 Winner+33.0pt100%
- O/U 2.5 Games+57.0pt100%
- 1 Rounds Handicap: Astralis (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5)100%
+29 more outcomes
POLYMARKETUEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion
- Barcelona18.1%
- Arsenal15.2%
- Paris Saint-Germain13.3%
+33 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $27.9M
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Aryna Sabalenka vs Linda Noskova Quarter Finals match
- Aryna Sabalenka72.6%
- Linda Noskova27.4%
- Total Vol
- $18.1K
- 24h Vol
- $2.2M
KALSHIUS Open Men's Singles Winner
- Carlos Alcaraz57%
- Alexander Zverev+5.0pt26%
- Ben Shelton9%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $28M
- 24h Vol
- $2.2M
KALSHIClub Brugge vs Aston Villa
- Aston Villa+49.0pt87.1%
- Tie-17.0pt9.9%
- Club Brugge-31.0pt3%
- Total Vol
- $2.5M
- BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Villarreal CF
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- United Arab Emirates vs Bangladesh
- 2027 Pro Football Champion
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Who will be the next person to successfully defend their title as classical World Chess Champion??
- Manifold Markets prices Other at 59% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Who will be the next person to successfully defend their title as classical World Chess Champion? resolve?
- Who will be the next person to successfully defend their title as classical World Chess Champion? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2035.
- How is Who will be the next person to successfully defend their title as classical World Chess Champion? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Magnus successfully defended his title four times (in a rematch against Vishy, and then against Karjakin, Fabi, and Nepo) before stepping aside.