Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 23, 2026, 9:29 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNone of the above 95%Leader of 5 outcomes
Forecasters
6
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+3.3 pts
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleJan 9, 26, 8:05 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Oxford Word of the Year 2026?
Manifold MarketsElon Musk # tweets October 24 - October 26, 2026?
PolymarketParis curfew effectively lifted by which date?
PolymarketWhat will NYC subway average weekday ridership be in October 2026?
KalshiWill Yellowstone record over 5 million recreation visits in 2026?
KalshiTurner Prize 2026 Winner
PolymarketRules
Cultural momentum matters more than correctness
- Prior-year winners are eligible again because language never learns
- Commenters will insist their favourite phrase is “obvious” in hindsight