When will the Ukraine war end/ceasfire for at least one month
US PoliticsOne-OffGeopoliticsRussia / Ukraine2yManifold MarketsNo KYCCurrent community forecastBefore 1.1.2024 1%Leader of 7 outcomes
Forecasters
11
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 21 days ago
StaleSep 3, 23, 5:57 AMFeb 1, 29, 10:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Before 1.1.20241%
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As "end" counts by ceasfire which takes place at the whole front and exists for at least a month (if it works 1m it likly is extended for infinity), any peace treaty or, the inability for one site to fight (e.g. doesn't exist anymore).
- Smaller violations of a ceasfire are ignored, if fighting continues like there was no ceasfire it doesn't count as one.
- If any side breaks appart the outcome of this question is decided by the last part of that country which continues serious fighting affort against any part of which was former the enemy country.
- The right answer is when the fighting stops.
- E.g.: ceasfire signed on 20.12.2025 starting at 22.12.2025, this question would resolve on 22.1.2026 with the answer "Before 1.1.2026, after 1.1.2025".
- The 1.1.2025 counts as "Before 1.1.2026, ...".