Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast2027 14.1%Leader of 13 outcomes
Forecasters
12
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleMar 21, 24, 4:56 AM UTCMar 29, 43, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will China successfully launch an orbital rocket with reused first stage by the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the United Kingdom complete their Sutherland spaceport and launch an orbital rocket from it before EOY 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhich African country will be the first to launch an orbital rocket in the 21st century?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a successful orbital rocket launch from UK soil this decade? (Eric Berger prediction)
Manifold MarketsElon Musk # tweets October 23 - October 30, 2026?
PolymarketBTC price on Oct 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiRules
Space Shuttle Failure Rate
- The Space Shuttle program had a failure rate of approximately 1.5%.
- Here's the breakdown:
- * Total Missions: 135
- * Catastrophic Failures: 2 (Challenger and Columbia)
- * Failure Rate: ~1.5%