Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 5:19 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecast2029 37.8%+0.1ptLeader of 5 outcomes
Forecasters
32
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+0.1 pts
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleJun 26, 23, 7:13 PM UTCJan 1, 30, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Bethesda publicly release The Elder Scrolls VI before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Elder Scrolls VI be released?
KalshiElder Scrolls VI released by December 31?
PolymarketWill The Elder Scrolls 6 release before the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhat will be the “All Reviews” rating for The Elder Scrolls VI on Steam, 6 months after the release date?
Manifold MarketsAny one of Half Life 3, the Winds of Winter, or Elder Scrolls 6 announced before the end of 2027
Manifold MarketsRules
What year will TES6 release? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Elder_Scrolls
- It's release date is supposedly far away and unknown.
- When the game releases, that year will resolve YES and all others will resolve NO.
- At the end of each year without release the appropriate answer will resolve NO.
- At the end of 2029, if there is still no release the final answer of the named outcome will resolve YES.