Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market is closed and awaiting confirmed resolution.
Awaiting verified resolution
CoinRithm is waiting for provider-confirmed settlement before treating this market as resolved.
Current community forecastBefore August 2026 100%+1.0ptLeader of 12 outcomes
Forecasters
33
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 days ago
StaleNov 5, 25, 2:19 PMJul 20, 26, 6:49 PM
Probability Timeline
Before December 20250%
Before January 20260%
Before February 20260%
Before March 20260%
Before April 20260%
Before May 20260%
Before June 20260%
Before July 20260%
Before August 2026100%
Before September 2026100%
Before October 2026100%
Before November 2026100%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
This market has closed. Mock trading is available on open markets only.
Compare venues· Before August 2026
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketBest overall82% match · verified | Low | 100% | — | $275.5 | $4.1K | 10 days ago | Open → |
| Manifold MarketsThis page | — | 100% | — | — | — | 5 days ago |
Also available on Polymarket
Kimi K3 released by which date?
0.4 ptsClosed
Resolved
July 31 (100%)
+0.4pt100%
-0.5pt0%
-0.7pt0%
+1 more outcomes
49 • Low qualityTight spreadMedium liquidity
Total Vol$61.5K
24h Vol$275.5
POLYMARKETRules
Minor changes to the name, such as 'Kimi K3.5', or other names for a model generally expected to be called Kimi K3, will count for the purpose of this market.
- The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product.
- Open, non-selective waitlists count.
- Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not.
- Country-level bans do not prevent resolution.
- @cstO2OAIhZ (this market)
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$1.2kJul 115d of dataJul 16
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Minor changes to the name, such as 'Kimi K3.5', or other names for a model generally expected to be called Kimi K3, will count for the purpose of this market.
- The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product.
- Open, non-selective waitlists count.
- Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not.
- Country-level bans do not prevent resolution.
- @cstO2OAIhZ (this market)