PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability1470+ 85%-8.5%Leader of 6 outcomes
Market quality
100 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$23.9K
Liquidity
$39.2K
High liquidityBid / Ask
84.0% / 86.0%
Spread
2.4%
Tight spread7d Change
-1.0%
Market data
Updated 15 minutes ago
Jul 15, 26, 1:19 AMDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
1470+85%
Volume trend
$23.9kJul 1512d of dataJul 26
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Claude Opus model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Any Claude model newly added to the leaderboard and labeled as "Opus" may qualify (e.g., claude-Opus-4.9, claude-Opus-5.0-thinking, claude-Opus-5.1-preview, or similar).
- Claude models labeled only as Sonnet, Haiku, or another non-Opus variant will not qualify.
- Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
- This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.