PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Alibaba 76%+5.8%Leader of 25 outcomes
Market quality
73 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$52.4K
Liquidity
$108.3K
High liquidityBid / Ask
16.0% / 17.8%
Spread
11.3%
Wide spread7d Change
+4.3%
Market data
Updated 18 minutes ago
Jun 4, 26, 7:28 PMJul 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
0%
0%
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Alibaba76%
Large trades
$1.2k98.4%POLYMARKETWill DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? — NoBigggggggg3d ago
POLYMARKETWill DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? — NoBigggggggg3d ago$1.7k50.5%POLYMARKETWill Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? — Yesrewardbots3d ago
POLYMARKETWill Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? — Yesrewardbots3d ago$1.2k99.7%POLYMARKETWill Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? — NoBigggggggg3d ago
POLYMARKETWill Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? — NoBigggggggg3d ago$1.2k99.9%POLYMARKETWill Baidu have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? — NoBigggggggg3d ago
POLYMARKETWill Baidu have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? — NoBigggggggg3d agoVolume trend
$52.4kJul 221d of dataJul 22
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This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank among primarily Chinese companies, based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
- Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
- Qualifying Chinese Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time.
- If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard.
- If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”).
- This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.