Current implied probability
July 17 52%-0.1%Leader of 32 outcomes
Market quality
73 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$6.2K
Liquidity
$95K
High liquidityBid / Ask
47.3% / 57.3%
Spread
21.1%
Wide spread7d Change
+33.8%
Market data
Updated 2 minutes ago
Jun 26, 26, 9:50 PMJul 31, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
July 1752%
Also available on Kalshi
When will Google release Gemini 3.5 Pro?
10.0%5d
-10.0%25%
-10.0%37%
1%
+3 more outcomes
60 • Medium qualityModerate spreadMedium liquidity
Total Vol$6.2K
24h Vol$158.5
KALSHI
Also available on Manifold Markets
When will Google release Gemini 3.5 pro?
6mo
3.5%
25.3%
36.5%
+5 more outcomes
Community forecast8 forecastersType: multiple choice
Total Vol$1.7K
24h Vol$270.9
MANIFOLD MARKETSRules
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
- Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview).
- Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
- Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
- A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups.
- A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
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This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
- Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview).
- Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
- Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
- A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups.
- A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.