PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityclaude-opus-4-6-thinking 82%+13.5%Leader of 4 outcomes
Market quality
88 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$18.1K
Liquidity
$22.3K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
81.0% / 82.0%
Spread
1.2%
Tight spread7d Change
-11.0%
Market data
Updated 2 minutes ago
Jul 17, 26, 3:05 AMAug 1, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
0%
0%
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
claude-opus-4-6-thinking82%
Volume trend
$18.1kJul 1710d of dataJul 26
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This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
- Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
- No new model will be added to this market after market creation.
- Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
- Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time.
- If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard.