What are the current odds for What will be true of the first major Switch 2 hardware revision? [ADD ANSWERS]?

Manifold Markets prices Smaller size (volume) than Switch 2 at 63.8% as of October 22, 2026.

What will be true of the first major Switch 2 hardware revision? [ADD ANSWERS]

One-OffTech4y

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

Smaller size (volume) than Switch 2 63.8%

Leader of 4 outcomes

Forecasters

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

7d Change

0.0 pts

Market data

Updated 6 hours ago

Stale

Dec 10, 25, 1:03 PM UTCDec 31, 30, 11:59 PM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

Nintendo has often released revised versions of their consoles during the console's life.

The GBA SP followed the GBA, the DS Lite followed the DS, and the Switch Lite followed the Switch.
This market will resolve YES / NO based on the first hardware revision released that meets the criteria below.
If Nintendo releases two hardware revisions simultaneously (e.g. a Switch 2 Lite and a Switch 2 OLED) then answers will resolve YES if they are true of either revision.
To clarify what "major hardware revision" means, here are the broad criteria I will be using to smell-test any new product release:
Does it play Switch 2 games? If so, points to YES