Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
15% to 25% 26.9%Leader of 5 outcomes
15% to 25% 26.9%Forecasters
2
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleJan 8, 24, 6:59 PM UTCJan 1, 30, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
Sodium-ion batteries appear to be in the process of commercialization, with multiple companies claiming to mass-produce them today.
- Meanwhile academics claim to have mitigated all their downsides except the lower energy density, and the cost is expected to be lower than lithium-ion.
- Not requiring lithium or cobalt in manufacturing also mitigates some geopolitical risks due to the uneven distribution of these minerals.
- "Market share" is defined as "% of new EVs sold globally powered by sodium-ion batteries".
- If multiple types of batteries are used, the EV counts as powered by sodium-ion if this battery type accounts for at least 50% of the total capacity.
- I will not bet on this market.
