What major event will precipitate the next run on toilet paper in the United States?
Trade PolicyOne-OffHealth & Medicine11moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Jul 18, 2026, 12:20 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-2
Current community forecastA new global pandemic 5.7%Leader of 22 outcomes
Forecasters
10
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 days ago
StaleJul 17, 25, 12:14 AMJul 17, 27, 12:13 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
A new global pandemic6%
Volume trend
$9Jul 172d of dataJul 18
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Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to the first major event that leads to a significant run on toilet paper in the United States.
- A "run" is defined as a nationwide shortage reported by major news outlets, characterized by widespread consumer stockpiling and empty shelves across multiple states.
- The event must be identified as the primary cause of the shortage.
- If multiple events occur simultaneously, the market will resolve to the event most widely recognized as the catalyst.
- Reliable sources such as the Associated Press, Reuters, or major national newspapers will be used to determine the outcome.