What Conservation Status Will the IUCN Assign to the Baiji (Lipotes Vexillifer) in Its Next Red List Assessment?
ChinaOne-Off1y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Critically Endangered (Possibly Extinct) 60.7%Leader of 14 outcomes
Forecasters
4
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+54.1 pts
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleDec 11, 24, 4:37 PMAug 31, 27, 9:59 PM
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Rules
The Baiji, a species of freshwater dolphin native to the Yantze River system in China, is currently listed as the named outcome (possibly extinct) on the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species.
- It was last assessed in August 2017.
- This market will resolve based on the conservation status assigned to the Baiji by the IUCN in its next Red List assessment.
- The target resolution date is August 2027 (10 years after the last assessment).
- However, resolution might occur earlier or later, depending on when the next assessment takes place.
- The possible outcomes align with the official IUCN Red List categories: the named outcome, the named outcome, Vulnerable, Endangered, the named outcome, the named outcome, Extinct, the named outcome, the named outcome.
