What are the current odds for Video-Game AGI by 2035?

Manifold Markets prices Yes at 86.5% as of October 30, 2026.

When does Video-Game AGI by 2035 resolve?

Video-Game AGI by 2035 is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2035.

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibrated

Data quality warningStale data

Data as of Oct 30, 2026, 6:44 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4

Current community forecast

Yes 86.5%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated yesterday

Stale

Mar 29, 23, 1:42 AM UTCJan 1, 35, 5:59 AM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

An AI that can play any video game at human level on consumer hardware (and human-levels of sample efficiency in learning new games)