Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market is closed and awaiting confirmed resolution.
Unverified resolution data
This outcome is inferred or unsupported by provider-grade settlement evidence.
Current community forecast≥$1T 100%Leader of 8 outcomes
Forecasters
40
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 28 days ago
StaleApr 22, 26, 3:49 AMJul 1, 26, 3:59 AM
Probability Timeline
≥$1T100%
≥$1.25T100%
≥$1.5T97.6%
≥$1.75T94%
≥$2T72.8%
≥$2.25T81.1%
≥$2.5T42.3%
≥$3T1%
1%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
This market has closed. Mock trading is available on open markets only.
Compare venues· ≥$1T
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketBest overall72% match · verified | Low | 100% | — | $14.1K | $0 | 27 days ago | Open → |
| Manifold MarketsThis page | — | 100% | — | — | — | 28 days ago |
Also available on Polymarket
Will SpaceX's valuation hit __ by June 30?
0.7 ptsClosed
+3.5pt100%
+65.3pt100%
+3.7pt100%
+12 more outcomes
19 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidity
Total Vol$3.1M
24h Vol$14.1K
POLYMARKETRules
Resolves each threshold based on the peak valuation for SpaceX credibly reported with an as-of date on or before 2026-06-30.
- Pre-IPO: valuation is set by primary funding rounds, tender offers, or IPO pricing.
- Secondary transactions between existing investors do not count — they reflect individual trades, not company-endorsed valuation events.
- Post-IPO: valuation = peak market cap between IPO and 2026-06-30 (highest closing share price × shares outstanding at that time).
- ≥$X resolves YES as soon as such a figure meets or exceeds $X; remaining thresholds resolve NO at close.
- Company announcements; SEC filings (S-1, 424B, 10-Q, 10-K); major financial press (The Information, Bloomberg, Reuters, WSJ).
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
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Anthropic IPO by __?
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When will OpenAI officially announce an IPO?
$7.1KBefore Sep 1, 2026: 2%
KALSHI
KALSHI
When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
$6.2KBefore Oct 1, 2026: 17%KALSHI
KALSHIActive in these topics
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Resolves each threshold based on the peak valuation for SpaceX credibly reported with an as-of date on or before 2026-06-30.
- Pre-IPO: valuation is set by primary funding rounds, tender offers, or IPO pricing.
- Secondary transactions between existing investors do not count — they reflect individual trades, not company-endorsed valuation events.
- Post-IPO: valuation = peak market cap between IPO and 2026-06-30 (highest closing share price × shares outstanding at that time).
- ≥$X resolves YES as soon as such a figure meets or exceeds $X; remaining thresholds resolve NO at close.
- Company announcements; SEC filings (S-1, 424B, 10-Q, 10-K); major financial press (The Information, Bloomberg, Reuters, WSJ).