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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Regulation
  3. Will any of the below AI companies be nationalized, according to the definition in the description?
Will any of the below AI companies be nationalized, according to the definition in the description?

Will any of the below AI companies be nationalized, according to the definition in the description?

RegulationAITechPoliticsGeopolitics3y
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsNo KYC
Current community forecast
Any frontier AI company, "soft nationalization"
Any frontier AI company, "soft nationalization" 78.6%
Leader of 12 outcomes
Forecasters

12

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 6 hours ago

Stale
Dec 9, 24, 7:39 PMJan 1, 30, 11:59 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Any frontier AI company, "soft nationalization"79%

Rules

Any specific market resolves to "Yes" if by January 1, 2030, for the relevant entity, the criteria for "soft nationalization" or "hard nationalization" occur.

Manifold Markets
  • That market resolves to "No" otherwise.
  • If it is unclear on 1st January 2030 whether the criteria above are met, resolution will be delayed by up to 30 days.
  • If it is still unclear, the market will resolve NO.
  • The criteria for "soft" and "hard" nationalization are below.
  • Below that are clarifications on the relevant entities.

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Rules

Any specific market resolves to "Yes" if by January 1, 2030, for the relevant entity, the criteria for "soft nationalization" or "hard nationalization" occur.

Manifold Markets
  • That market resolves to "No" otherwise.
  • If it is unclear on 1st January 2030 whether the criteria above are met, resolution will be delayed by up to 30 days.
  • If it is still unclear, the market will resolve NO.
  • The criteria for "soft" and "hard" nationalization are below.
  • Below that are clarifications on the relevant entities.