Current community forecast
No 88.6%
Forecasters
3
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 30 minutes ago
Nov 21, 23, 8:03 PM UTCNov 1, 26, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolves Yes, if, before November 2026, an attack on quantum or conventional computer of the signature scheme Dilithium (1) is published (preprint, journal article or conference proceeding), that leads to NIST dropping the algorithm from its post-quantum standard, or discouraging its use; or alternatively, if multiple recognized/leading cryptographers recommend against its use.
- I reserve the right to discuss in the comments, temporarily halt trading, and possibly even resolve N/A on ambiguity.
- Suggestions and comments on resolution criteria are welcome if made well in advance of the resolving event
- (1) https://pq-crystals.org/dilithium/index.shtml
