What are the current odds for Did the NSA work to weaken post-quantum cryptography??

Manifold Markets prices Yes at 59.8% as of October 25, 2026.

Did the NSA work to weaken post-quantum cryptography?

CryptoOne-Off5y

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Current community forecast

Yes 59.8%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 1 hour ago

Lagging

Aug 5, 22, 11:19 PM UTCJan 1, 32, 6:59 AM UTC

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Rules

Did the NSA interfere with the NIST PQC standardization process with the intent of making the resulting cryptosystem more susceptible to attack?

This market resolves to MKT shortly after close---early January 2032.
There will be no early resolution.
(Otherwise there would be too strong of a bias towards YES.)
I may resolve the market by hand, rather than to MKT, if there's evidence that the market isn't functioning correctly.
For instance, if overwhelming evidence is clearly being ignored, if the market is far from the consensus of crypto professionals, etc. The purpose of this disclaimer is to make sure the Keynesian beauty contest stays on track.