Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastPat Scott @Stralor 33.4%Leader of 12 outcomes
Forecasters
64
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+1.4 pts
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleAug 3, 26, 4:44 PM UTCDec 30, 27, 4:14 PM UTC
Trends
0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
My company is hiring.
- We've mostly given up on traditional application pipelines, there's too much AI spam and lying on resumes.
- Robin Hanson says that hiring is the killer app of prediction markets, so let's try it?
- I work for a growth-stage fintech company innovating new ways to prevent fraud.
- We're based in New York, though most of our employees are fully remote.
- Positions are flexible; we're looking to hire people with a technical bent who are generally competent and excited to solve problems.
Open markets
Business & Corporate
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+9.8pt96%
- $25M+15.5pt94%
- $50M+31.5pt86%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $354.3K
- 24h Vol
- $354.2K
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- 40-64+4.0pt50%
- 65-89+27.0pt47.1%
- 90-114-2.4pt2.9%
+7 more outcomes
POLYMARKETLargest Company end of December 2026?
- NVIDIA+1.0pt78.4%
- Apple+0.6pt13.7%
- Alphabet6.9%
+5 more outcomes
KALSHIWashington aerospace manufacturing employment average in 2026
- Above 80,000 jobs98%
- Above 81,000 jobs95%
- Above 82,000 jobs+3.0pt92%
+10 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.5K
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 8 - September 15, 2026?
- 180-199-1.0pt18.2%
- 200-219-1.0pt18.2%
- 160-179+1.0pt14.1%
+23 more outcomes
POLYMARKETLargest Company end of September?
- NVIDIA+0.3pt98%
- Apple-0.2pt2%
- Alphabet0%
+6 more outcomes
- Boeing commercial airplane deliveries in 2026
- California FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026
- Elon Musk # of tweets in September 2026?
- Illinois nuclear electricity generation in 2026
- 3rd Largest Company end of September?
- Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- First to hit $1B FDV: ANSEM, CASHCAT, AI, or NET?
- Taco Bell same-store sales growth in Q3
- Will GameStop acquire eBay in 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Should we hire you? [Job-finding market]?
- Manifold Markets prices Pat Scott @Stralor at 33% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Should we hire you? [Job-finding market] resolve?
- Should we hire you? [Job-finding market] is scheduled to resolve on December 30, 2027.
- How is Should we hire you? [Job-finding market] settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: My company is hiring.